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Arkansas State — Sun Belt

HC Butch Jones · Centennial Bank Stadium · Jonesboro, AR · 30,382 cap
SP+
#105 · -11.6
2026
Elo
1317
2025
PPA off / def
0.09 / 0.19
2025
2025 record
7–6
Class rank
#85
class of 2026
Talent
591
2025
Returning PPA
30%
returning production
SP+ rating by season

vs Ohio State — OSU leads 1–0

2022 OSU W 45–12Columbus

2026 schedule

WkOpponentAll-time seriesVenue
wk1at MemphisMemphis leads 19–8–3 · L5Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
wk2vs West GeorgiaCentennial Bank Stadium
wk3at TCUTCU leads 2–0 · L2Amon G. Carter Stadium
wk4vs Kennesaw StateKennesaw State leads 1–0Centennial Bank Stadium
wk5at LouisianaLouisiana leads 27–18 · L2Cajun Field
wk6vs South Alabamaleads 8–6 · W2Centennial Bank Stadium
wk7at Southern MissSouthern Miss leads 8–3M. M. Roberts Stadium
wk8vs Georgia Stateleads 7–2Centennial Bank Stadium
wk10vs UL Monroeleads 26–8Centennial Bank Stadium
wk11at Coastal Carolinatied 3–3 · L3Brooks Stadium (SC)
wk12at Louisiana TechLouisiana Tech leads 15–4 · L3Joe Aillet Stadium
wk13vs Troyleads 11–9 · W2Centennial Bank Stadium

2025 results (7–6)

wk1 vs Southeast Missouri State W 42–24
wk2 N Arkansas L 14–56
wk3 vs Iowa State L 16–24
wk4 at Kennesaw State L 21–28
wk5 at UL Monroe L 16–28
wk6 vs Texas State W 31–30
wk8 at South Alabama W 15–14
wk9 vs Georgia Southern W 34–24
wk10 at Troy W 23–10
wk11 vs Southern Miss L 21–27
wk13 vs Louisiana L 30–34
wk14 at App State W 30–29
wk1 post N Missouri State W 34–28 Xbox Bowl

Statistical comps — 2025 Arkansas State's closest analogs

Season · TeamRecordAP FinalSP+Similarity
2016 Virginia 2–10 -3.8 58
2024 Eastern Michigan 5–7 -13.3 55
2019 Nevada 7–6 -12.3 52
2022 Stanford 3–9 -7.2 52
2018 Old Dominion 4–8 -14.1 50
2019 East Carolina 4–8 -14.0 50
Nearest neighbors by z-scored success rate, explosiveness, run rate & havoc (offense + defense), 2015–25.

2025 leaders

Passing
Jaylen RaynorQB3,364 yds
Josh FlowersQB13 yds
Rushing
Devin SpencerRB559 yds
Kenyon ClayRB523 yds
Jaylen RaynorQB428 yds
Receiving
Corey RuckerWR1,029 yds
Chauncy CobbWR797 yds
Hunter SummersWR505 yds

Transfer portal — 2026 (25 in / 37 out)

Incoming
Manasse IteteIOLFlorida State★★★
Trey OwensQBTexas★★★
Joshua OforLBNC State★★★
Makai ShahidS← Youngstown State★★★
Tyeland ColemanDLFlorida State★★★
AJ ThomasEDGE← McNeese★★★
Boski BarrettWRVanderbilt★★★
Jeremy St-HilaireQBVanderbilt★★★
+ 17 more
Outgoing
Tyler FortenberryTEIowa State
Drew CollinsEDGESouth Carolina
Javante MackeyLBTexas State
Jaylen RaynorQBIowa State
Tristian SmithIOL→ uncommitted
Damarcco BlantonWRUL Monroe
DD MurrayRBTexas A&M
Aaron AlexanderLBNorth Texas
+ 29 more
data: CollegeFootballData.com · dashboard

Origins

Five conference titles in seven years across the 2010s under a rotating cast of coaches — Freeze, Malzahn, Harsin, Anderson — every one of whom left for a bigger job almost immediately.

Founded 1909 · A district agricultural school in the Delta · first football 1911 · defined by Blake Anderson

All-time record

All-time
255–333–7
1914–2025
Win %
43.4%
83 seasons played
Winning seasons
25
30% of seasons
By level: ii/iii 5–10–2 (1914–1954) · D-II 1–14 (1935–1963) · FBS 240–293–2 (1965–2025) · FCS 9–16–3 (1982–1989)
Best seasonsWLConference
1975110Southland
2012103Sun Belt
2011103Sun Belt
201594Sun Belt
202485Sun Belt
Season records from CollegeFootballData, which is why the span starts at 1914 — that is where its coverage of this program begins, not necessarily the first year it fielded a team.

Play-calling tendencies (2025 · garbage time excluded)

SituationPlaysRun %Success %Nat'lAvg ydsExpl %
1st down40352% 44%70 of 1365.311%
2nd down30337% 39%93 of 1365.110%
3rd & short (≤3)5265% 65%4.312%
3rd & medium (4–7)6314% 35%4.02%
3rd & long (8+)7517% 27%7.520%
4th down2330% 70%4.59%
161 drives · 32% ended in points · 7.4 plays and 39.4 yards per drive · 0.56 PPA per drive
Success: 50% of yardage needed on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th. Explosive: 12+ yd rush / 16+ yd pass. National rank is shown only for 1st and 2nd down, where every team has 100+ plays; the later buckets average 18-43 and a rank there would be noise. League leaderboard →

Most valuable plays (by PPA, 2025)

WkOppPlayYdsPPA
CFPMissouri State (03:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Raynor pass complete deep left to #7 C.Rucker caught at MOS… 717.04
1Southeast Missouri State Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Chauncy Cobb for 45 yds to the SEMO 30 for a 1ST down South… 454.31
1Southeast Missouri State Devin Spencer run for 43 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK) 434.29
4Kennesaw State Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Hunter Summers for 28 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK) 284.08
3Iowa State Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jaylen Bonelli for 34 yds to the ISU 39 for a 1ST down 343.87
6Texas State Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Kenyon Clay for 27 yds to the TXST 35 for a 1ST down 273.82
14App State (02:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Raynor pass complete deep middle to #16 C.Cobb caught at AP… 433.65
1Southeast Missouri State Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Tyler Little for 28 yds to the SEMO 33 for a 1ST down 283.62