Vegas national-title odds (B1G, avg of books): OSU +580 (15%) Β· ORE +740 (12%) Β· IND +860 (10%) Β· USC +3360 (3%) Β· MICH +3560 (3%) β market has OSU ahead of Indiana, siding with the experts over our results-model.
B1G title game
57%
Monte Carlo, 5,000 sims
B1G champion
33%
full conference simulated
CFP berth
81%
champ auto + at-large by wins
B1G favorite
IND
42% to win the conference
Win-total distribution
Win prob: logistic model (SP+ diff + Elo diff + home field, trained on 7,495 FBS games). Point line: SP+ margin Β± 2. Exact win-total distribution over remaining games. Full per-game schedule, scouting & prediction below.
Preseason β sorted by projected conference-title odds (Monte Carlo). Conf/overall records fill in as games are played; Champ% shown for the sim's top contenders.
2026 preseason expectations β model vs. expert consensus
Expert preseason ranks from accuracy-ranked public sources (Stassen accuracy: Pick Six #1, Athlon #2, Steele #3). Our SP+ rank uses 2026 finals until 2026 projections publish. Note the divergence: experts rank Ohio State #1β2 while our results-anchored model has Indiana ahead β the human take fades Indiana's outlier 2025; the model can't.
Touches = carries + receptions. Ξ = share of team touches over the last three games minus season-long share β rising usage before it shows in season totals.
Instant classics β most exciting games on record
π claimed national championship. Rating is SP+; β = SRS where SP+ doesn't reach. Linked seasons are fully indexed (game-level data); summary-only rows fill in as seasons are deep-ingested from CFBD. Season summaries referenced from Sports-Reference.
Normalized CFBD catalog Β· D1 Β· auto-ingests Sundays Β· rendered Aug 22, 2026, 1:04 AM CT Β· last ingest Aug 21, 10:15 PM CT β Β· 156/5000 API calls this month Β· π play search