WIN PROBABILITYMississippi State above · Arkansas below
KICK61% → 0% ArkansasFINAL
Mississippi StateArkansasbar spans the drive · tick marks the start · click a drive for the plays
OWN G255025END ZONE
WP
Δ
▸
Q1
PUNT
5 pl · 26 yd · 3:15
0–0
14:43
1st & 10
OWN 31
(14:54) Shotgun #10 T.Green pass complete short middle to #9 O.Blake caught at ARK42, for 13 yards to the ARK44 (#13 J.Manning), 1ST DOWN
+13
1.24
14:19
1st & 10
OWN 44
(14:24) No Huddle #4 M.Washington rush left for 10 yards gain to the MSU46 (#2 I.Smith), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN. #71 J.McRoy injured on the play
+10
0.83
14:06
1st & 10
OPP 46
(14:06) Shotgun #10 T.Green rush middle for 7 yards gain to the MSU39 (#44 B.Jennings) PENALTY ARK Holding (#75 K.Broussard) 10 yards from MSU46 to ARK44. NO PLAY
+10
13:37
1st & 20
OWN 44
(13:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Washington rush middle for 8 yards gain to the MSU48 (#16 D.Gullette)
+8
0.70
13:04
2nd & 12
OPP 48
(13:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Washington rush middle for 6 yards gain to the MSU42 (#22 K.Bingley-Jones)
+6
0.30
12:16
3rd & 6
OPP 42
(12:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green rush right for 1 yard loss to the MSU43 (#8 M.Sylla; #92 J.Bledsoe)
-1
-1.25
11:39
4th & 7
OPP 43
(11:46) #37 D.Bale punt 43 yards to the MSU00, Touchback
(11:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Shapen pass incomplete deep right to #0 B.Thompson thrown to ARK32 PENALTY ARK Pass Interference (#4 J.Young) 15 yards from MSU21 to MSU36, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY
(11:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Shapen rush left for 2 yards gain to the MSU38 (#7 B.Shaw)
+2
-0.41
10:15
3rd & 8
OWN 38
(10:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Shapen pass complete short right to #0 B.Thompson caught at MSU48, for 11 yards to the MSU49, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "First down". CALL UPHELD
+11
2.67
9:56
1st & 10
OWN 49
(10:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Shapen rush left for 1 yard gain to the MSU50 (#22 C.Wooden), out of bounds
+1
-0.89
9:31
2nd & 9
50
(09:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Shapen pass complete short left to #11 A.Williams caught at MSU48, for 1 yard loss to the MSU49 (#7 B.Shaw)
-1
-1.25
9:02
3rd & 10
OWN 49
(09:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Shapen pass complete short left to #8 S.Traore caught at ARK47, for 4 yards to the ARK47 (#7 B.Shaw)
+4
-0.13
8:21
4th & 6
OPP 47
(08:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Shapen pass complete short left to #24 F.Bothwell caught at ARK47, for 39 yards to the ARK08 (#22 C.Wooden), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
(07:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Shapen pass complete short right to #6 D.Booth caught at ARK14, for 8 yards to the ARK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:06 #80 K.Ferrie kick attempt good (H: #49 M.Hauck, LS: #45 E.Myers)
(14:36) Shotgun #10 T.Green rush middle for 2 yards loss to the MSU03 fumbled by #10 T.Green at MSU03 recovered by ARK #10 T.Green at MSU03, End Of Play
(00:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green pass complete short middle to #4 M.Washington caught at ARK49, for 14 yards to the MSU40 (#16 D.Gullette), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
+14
1.00
0:34
1st & 10
OPP 40
(00:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green pass incomplete deep right thrown to MSU20 QB hurried by #92 J.Bledsoe
0
-0.85
0:34
2nd & 10
OPP 40
(00:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green rush left for 9 yards gain to the MSU31 (#8 M.Sylla) PENALTY ARK Holding (#51 C.Robinson II) 10 yards from MSU40 to MSU50. NO PLAY
+10
0:18
2nd & 20
50
(00:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green pass incomplete short right to #4 M.Washington thrown to MSU41 QB hurried by #44 B.Jennings
(14:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Shapen pass incomplete deep middle to #3 A.Evans III thrown to ARK35 QB hurried by #97 Q.Rhodes Jr. PENALTY ARK Roughing The Passer (#97 Q.Rhodes Jr.) 15 yards from MSU25 to MSU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY
+15
14:47
1st & 10
OWN 40
(14:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor rush left for 7 yards gain to the MSU47 (#23 J.Neal)
(14:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 F.Bothwell rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ARK45 (#10 X.Sorey; #7 B.Shaw)
+2
-0.58
13:43
2nd & 8
OPP 45
(13:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor pass complete deep middle to #3 A.Evans III caught at ARK06, for 45 yards to the ARK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:43, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was not down by contact". CALL UPHELD #80 K.Ferrie kick attempt failed (H: #49 M.Hauck, LS: #45 E.Myers) PENALTY ARK Offside (#21 K.Davila) 2 yards from ARK03 to ARK01. NO PLAY #80 K.Ferrie kick attempt failed (H: #49 M.Hauck, LS: #45 E.Myers) PENALTY ARK Offside (#21 K.Davila) 1 yard from ARK03 to ARK02. NO PLAY #80 K.Ferrie kick attempt good (H: #49 M.Hauck, LS: #45 E.Myers)
+45
4.20
13:43
OWN 2
Timeout , clock 13:43
▸
TD
9 pl · 75 yd · 4:20
14–20
+39
13:37
1st & 10
OWN 25
(13:43) Shotgun #4 M.Washington rush left for 13 yards gain to the ARK38 (#3 B.Lanier; #2 I.Smith), 1ST DOWN
+13
1.12
12:59
1st & 10
OWN 38
(13:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Washington rush left for 6 yards gain to the ARK44 (#2 I.Smith; #16 D.Gullette)
+6
0.40
12:23
2nd & 4
OWN 44
(12:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Washington rush right for 8 yards gain to the MSU48 (#2 I.Smith; #40 N.Mitchell), 1ST DOWN
(11:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green pass incomplete deep right thrown to MSU25 QB hurried by #16 D.Gullette
0
-1.11
11:06
3rd & 7
OPP 45
(11:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green rush left for 18 yards gain to the MSU27 (#2 I.Smith), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY MSU Holding (#15 J.Williams) 10 yards from MSU27 to MSU17, 1ST DOWN
+18
2.42
10:55
1st & 10
OPP 17
(10:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green rush left for 10 yards gain to the MSU07 (#1 K.Jones) PENALTY ARK Illegal Formation 5 yards from MSU17 to MSU22. NO PLAY
+5
10:29
1st & 15
OPP 22
(10:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 B.Russell rush left for 3 yards gain to the MSU19 (#1 K.Jones)
+3
-0.12
9:50
2nd & 12
OPP 19
(10:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green pass complete short right to #3 C.Brown caught at MSU08, for 11 yards to the MSU08, End Of Play
+11
0.55
9:23
3rd & 1
OPP 8
(09:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green rush middle for 8 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:23, 1ST DOWN #80 S.Starzyk kick attempt good (H: #37 D.Bale, LS: #30 A.Ngo)
+8
2.53
9:23
OPP 3
Timeout , clock 09:23
▸
ON DOWNS
8 pl · 36 yd · 2:34
14–20
−13
9:12
1st & 10
OWN 25
(09:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 A.Evans III rush right for 16 yards gain to the MSU41 (#16 M.Mitchell; #42 W.Simmons), 1ST DOWN
+16
1.42
9:00
1st & 10
OWN 41
(09:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor pass incomplete short middle to #8 S.Traore thrown to MSU44
0
-1.14
8:53
2nd & 10
OWN 41
(09:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor rush right for 6 yards gain to the MSU47 (#13 K.Walker)
+6
0.30
8:27
3rd & 4
OWN 47
(08:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor rush middle for 11 yards gain to the ARK42 (#13 K.Walker), 1ST DOWN
(06:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Washington rush right for 20 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:18, 1ST DOWN #88 R.Jones pass attempt Successful #88 R.Jones pass attempt Successful PENALTY #88 R.Jones pass attempt Successful PENALTY ARK UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#3 C.Brown) 15 yards from MSU00 to ARK20 #88 R.Jones pass attempt Successful PENALTY ARK UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#3 C.Brown) 5 yards from MSU00 to ARK30
+20
2.62
▸
TD
4 pl · 45 yd · 1:25
21–28
−21
6:08
1st & 10
OPP 45
(06:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 F.Bothwell rush right for 10 yards gain to the ARK35 (#13 K.Walker), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
+10
0.50
5:57
1st & 10
OPP 35
(05:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ARK30 (#3 L.Worth III) PENALTY ARK Targeting (#3 L.Worth III) 15 yards from ARK30 to ARK15, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Targeting". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (05:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ARK30 (#3 L.Worth III)). Arkansas #3 L.Worth III has been disqualified
(04:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor rush middle for 20 yards gain to the ARK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:49, 1ST DOWN #80 K.Ferrie kick attempt good (H: #49 M.Hauck, LS: #45 E.Myers)
+20
3.27
▸
PUNT
6 pl · 12 yd · 2:16
21–28
+5
4:42
1st & 10
OWN 25
(04:49) Shotgun #4 M.Washington rush right for 5 yards gain to the ARK30 (#2 I.Smith)
+5
0.09
4:12
2nd & 5
OWN 30
(04:18) Shotgun #10 T.Green pass incomplete short right to #6 R.Sharpe thrown to ARK45 QB hurried by #44 B.Jennings PENALTY ARK Ineligible Downfield on Pass declined
(03:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Washington rush middle for 0 yards to the ARK37 fumbled by #4 M.Washington at ARK37 forced by #7 Z.Tillman recovered by ARK #4 M.Washington at ARK37 (#7 Z.Tillman)
0
-1.07
2:55
2nd & 10
OWN 37
(02:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green pass incomplete short middle to #15 K.Shanks thrown to ARK43 broken up by #21 H.Washington
(02:44) #37 D.Bale punt 43 yards to the MSU20 #3 A.Evans III return 2 yards to the MSU22 (#15 K.Shanks) PENALTY ARK Face Mask (#15 K.Shanks) 15 yards from MSU22 to MSU37, 1ST DOWN
(00:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green pass complete short middle to #6 R.Sharpe caught at MSU09, for 25 yards to the MSU00 fumbled by #6 R.Sharpe at MSU00 forced by #4 D.Brumfield, Touchback PENALTY MSU Holding (#21 H.Washington) 10 yards from MSU25 to MSU15, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY
(12:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Shapen pass complete short right to #0 B.Thompson caught at MSU45, for 7 yards to the MSU45, out of bounds at MSU45
+7
0.59
11:40
3rd & 1
OWN 45
(11:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Shapen rush right for 3 yards gain to the MSU48 (#5 C.Ball; #10 X.Sorey), 1ST DOWN
+3
1.19
11:02
1st & 10
OWN 48
(11:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Shapen sacked for loss of 10 yards to the MSU38 (#97 Q.Rhodes Jr.), fumble by #2 B.Shapen recovered by MSU #74 J.Lewis Jr. at MSU38, End Of Play
-10
-2.82
10:37
2nd & 20
OWN 38
(10:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Shapen pass complete deep middle to #3 A.Evans III caught at ARK38, for 33 yards to the ARK29 (#16 M.Mitchell), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY ARK Roughing The Passer (#10 X.Sorey) 15 yards from ARK29 to ARK14, 1ST DOWN
+33
4.04
10:24
1st & 10
OPP 14
(10:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Shapen pass incomplete short right to #3 A.Evans III thrown to ARK00 PENALTY ARK Pass Interference (#21 K.Davila) 12 yards from ARK14 to ARK02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY
+12
10:16
1st & 2
OPP 2
(10:19) Shotgun #6 D.Booth rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ARK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:16 #80 K.Ferrie kick attempt good (H: #49 M.Hauck, LS: #45 E.Myers)
+2
1.21
10:16
OWN 3
Timeout , clock 10:16
▸
PUNT
4 pl · 7 yd · 1:47
28–35
+10
10:10
1st & 10
OWN 25
(10:16) Shotgun #4 M.Washington rush right for 14 yards gain (7) to the ARK39 (#9 T.Mitchell), out of bounds PENALTY ARK Holding (#55 F.Carmona) 10 yards from ARK32 to ARK22
(08:36) #37 D.Bale punt 39 yards to the MSU29, out of bounds at MSU29
▸
FG
8 pl · 43 yd · 3:22
31–35
−16
8:22
1st & 10
OWN 29
(08:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Booth rush right for 11 yards gain to the MSU40 (#16 M.Mitchell), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
+11
1.02
7:59
1st & 10
OWN 40
(08:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Booth rush left for 5 yards loss to the MSU35 (#97 Q.Rhodes Jr.) PENALTY ARK UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (#97 Q.Rhodes Jr.) 15 yards from MSU35 to MSU50, 1ST DOWN
-5
-1.91
7:39
1st & 10
50
(07:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Shapen rush right for 3 yards gain to the ARK47 (#0 J.Boone)
+3
-0.39
7:21
2nd & 7
OPP 47
(07:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Shapen pass complete short middle to #0 B.Thompson caught at ARK32, for 27 yards to the ARK20 (#22 C.Wooden), 1ST DOWN
+27
1.61
7:01
1st & 10
OPP 20
(07:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Shapen pass incomplete short left to #3 A.Evans III thrown to ARK18 broken up by #10 X.Sorey
PENALTY MSU False Start (#61 T.Mayberry) 5 yards from ARK17 to ARK22. NO PLAY
+5
5:52
3rd & 12
OPP 22
(06:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Shapen sacked for loss of 11 yards to the ARK33 (#1 P.Lee)
-11
-2.87
5:07
4th & 18
OPP 28
(05:11) #80 K.Ferrie field goal attempt from 46 yards GOOD (H: #49 M.Hauck, LS: #45 E.Myers), clock 05:07
▸
PUNT
4 pl · 1 yd · 1:59
31–35
+3
5:00
1st & 10
OWN 25
(05:06) Shotgun #4 M.Washington rush middle for 7 yards gain to the ARK32 (#7 Z.Tillman)
+7
0.60
4:24
2nd & 3
OWN 32
(04:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green rush right for 13 yards gain (3) to the ARK45 (#3 B.Lanier) PENALTY ARK Holding (#83 J.Platt) 10 yards from ARK35 to ARK25
(03:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Booth rush right for 1 yard gain to the MSU32 (#16 M.Mitchell)
+1
-0.74
2:42
2nd & 9
OWN 32
(02:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Shapen pass complete short right to #8 S.Traore caught at MSU34, for 2 yards to the MSU34 (#16 M.Mitchell), out of bounds
+2
-0.37
2:13
3rd & 7
OWN 34
(02:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Shapen pass incomplete short right to #3 A.Evans III thrown to MSU39 broken up by #21 K.Davila
0
-0.38
2:01
4th & 7
OWN 34
(02:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Shapen pass complete deep right to #0 B.Thompson caught at ARK34, for 32 yards to the ARK34, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN
+32
4.16
2:00
4th & 7
OPP 34
Timeout , clock 02:00
1:53
1st & 10
OPP 34
(01:59) Shotgun #2 B.Shapen rush middle for 8 yards gain to the ARK26 (#16 M.Mitchell)
(00:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Shapen pass complete short right to #3 A.Evans III caught at ARK15, for 18 yards to the ARK00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:48, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Game Clock". CALL UPHELD #80 K.Ferrie kick attempt good (H: #49 M.Hauck, LS: #45 E.Myers)
+18
3.59
▸
ON DOWNS
4 pl · -22 yd · 0:29
38–35
−21
0:34
1st & 10
OWN 25
(00:42) Shotgun #10 T.Green pass complete short left to #4 M.Washington caught at ARK27, for 3 yards to the ARK28 (#40 N.Mitchell)
(00:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green pass incomplete deep right to #9 O.Blake thrown to ARK50
0
-0.09
0:17
4th & 13
OWN 22
Timeout Arkansas, clock 00:17
0:14
4th & 13
OWN 22
(00:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green pass incomplete short right thrown to ARK15 QB hurried by #37 N.Sanders PENALTY ARK Intentional Grounding (#10 T.Green), TURNOVER ON DOWNS
-19
0.34
0:00
1st & 3
OWN 3
End of 4th quarter.
-0.30
24 drives. Field position runs left to right for both teams: 0 is the offense's own goal line, 100 the one it is attacking. WP is CollegeFootballData's model, read at the last play of each drive; Δ is what the drive moved it, in points of probability.
Tackles with solo in parentheses. Sacks, plays for loss and explosive plays come from the play rows; takeaways and three-and-outs from how each drive ended.
K kicking, P punting, KR kick returns, PR punt returns. Average drive start counts only drives that began after a punt or a kickoff — a drive handed over by a takeaway is the defense's doing.
Team stats from play-by-play
68
plays
75
383
yards
435
11
drives
12
37%
success rate
49%
16.17
total PPA
28.57
Derived from 143 scrimmage plays. Interception return yardage is excluded from the offense.
Scoring
Q1
(07:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Shapen pass complete short right to #6 D.Booth caught at ARK14…
7–0
Q2
(13:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green pass complete short right to #88 R.Jones caught at MSU01…